Election Day - Get Informed - Go Vote

Haven't had time to post on the amazing craziness surrounding the elections - partially due to kids and school - partially due to the overwhelming amount of confusion from all different directions regarding the elections. I honestly "gave up" a little because it was emotional overload. And, I am learning that I need to keep my eye on bigger truths than what's constantly happening in politics. It's important to be a responsible citizen - i.e. get informed and GO VOTE! But it's also not the answer to everything worth seeking.

Couldn't pass up this article that the hubby sent. For all of you that are certain of Obama's victory, here's some food for thought from "toast" by Sean Malstrom (link to follow):

I am not running for President. You, the gentle reader, are not running for President. The only two people who are running for President, Obama and McCain, are going to states and sending advertising money to other states that don’t even match the public polls. For example, Pennslyvania is colored a ‘dark blue’, yet both Obama and McCain are visiting the state. ‘Dark blue’ or ‘light blue’ is the color of Iowa, yet both Obama and McCain are there. Many polls say that Georgia is a ‘toss-up’, yet neither Obama or McCain are visiting that state. Since the only two people running for President are performing actions entirely differently than the public polling, one can either say that the presidential candidates are just running around states randomly and are dumb, or it is the possibility that the public polling is not accurate.

I told my husband to stop listening and reading about polls two weeks ago - personally, they make me crazy because they are trying to predict the future - which we all know is just an educated guess. With the polling data being all over the place and Gallop having three different formulas for obtaining data, you'd think people would get the idea that this year in particular the pollsters are not even confident they are close to the mark. In addition, I firmly believe what Malstrom explains in more detail, that polls are a product being sold to an audience too. If you know the answer people want to hear, it's easier to sell the product. Same goes for exit polling, unfortunately. People can sense when their choice is undesired by those asking the questions and have been known to change their answers or decline to particpate. Those are two reasons why exit polls sometimes don't match election resuls.

For more information on how the so-called impossible might be possible, check out the full post.

Part of the product these polls and the media are selling (I think), is that people will "buy in" to their results. I think this product is going to add to the anger people will feel if the result of the election is different than predicted. Great, let's get a divided country even more hostile toward each other.

The polls and the media can cause even more division by calling states before the votes are counted (quoted from the same post as above):

In 2004, the media wisely delayed calling states when voting hadn’t been completed (such as Florida in 2000). There will be none of that delay in 2008. I suspect we will have many states called for Obama before the voting is even done. The state that will be erroneously called for Obama will be Pennslyvania. In Pennslyvania, all the Obama votes are mostly in the Philly and Pittsburg area and Obama will comfortably carry those areas. And those areas are the eastern part of Pennslyvania with the western part being more rural. With the ‘Obama leads’ that Philly and Pittsburg area comes in, and the myth that Obama is ahead 25 points (or whatever) in PA being believed by the anchors, they will call PA early. But once all the rest of the state votes, they will have to turn it into a toss-up. They will be EXTREMELY reluctant to call the state for McCain even when the votes clearly show he has won there (and he *will* win there.)"

I know there will be many people very upset if Obama does not come out the victor in this long, serious race. There are many divisions in this country that face the new president, and we each of probably felt that friction personally. If McCain wins, I believe there are people out there who will have such sour grapes that they will do everything to misrepresent and devalue his efforts to heal old wounds and the successes he will have as president (exhibit A: Bush after 2004). The bickering and complaining will create more and more divisions. So regardless of who wins, can we agree to be civil to each other, to pick up the broken pieces of our country, and to work together?

And remember, the enthusiasm behind a vote does not change how much it is weighted. The opinions heard most loudly in the media and out in public do not eliminate the need for the actual election. These factors are not an infringement on free speech, but rather a degree of intimidation that can also disenfranchise voters - or at the very least, change their responses in polls.

Just some thoughts for the day. I hope you have a good one, and regardless of the weather - make informed decisions and VOTE!

GT <><